For my final project I plan on outlining the different views of the republican and democratic presidential nominees. I am going to place a particuliar emphasis on the candidates position on America's energy crisis. I will be outlining both John McCain and Barack Obama's position on energy, technology, and science. I will also be including both the pros and cons of drilling for oil, versus advancing twoards alternative energy resources. Hopefully through this project, I can teach people about the different positions the candidates support. I plan on doing this project s a poster/tri-fold model, similar to the poster i did on the Earth's cycles.
I look forward to doing this project.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
My Opinion On America's Energy Crisis
Solving America's energy crisis will take many years of scientific and technological advancement and research. In order to efficiently challenge this crisis, America must focus on coming up with new ways to harvest alternative energy resources.
Alternative energy sources bring hope to the future. Using natural things, suchs as the sun, wind, biofuels, and hydro-power for electricity, will improve the overall quality of our staggering environment.
Our current way of harvesting energy, is very detrimental to the environment. The harvesting of the fossil fuels, is bad enough for the ecology of our world. To get the fossil fuels needed for nuclear enery, we must mine down to extreme depths in the Earth's crust. When doing this, the drilling causes caverns in the Earth that cause sinkholes to occur, and caue the Earth's crust to collapse. This unnatural change to the Earth's geosphere can change many things tha regard to the Earth's biodiversity.
Drilling for oil can also cause oil deposits to diffuse into our water systems. The oil when enering our water systems, isn't miscible and causes a layer to form on our most crucial biosphere in the world. This mix of oil with water, is very bad for the future of biodiversity. Through the water cycle, the oil mixed with water will eventually get into condensed water, and be released as precipitation.
Fossil Fuel emissions are produced from the burning of oil. This process produces toxins that cause acid precipitation, that eventually infiltrates and pollutes the entirity of the planet. Through the consumption of acid rain, the toxins from fossil fuels eventually get into the systems of organsisms, ultimately polluting the whole of our planet.
I thnk that transitioning into alternative energies will be the most beneficial thing for America, and for our planet. Not only does America need to become ernergy independnt from foreign fuel, we need to develop cleaner sources of energy that won't pollute the various components of our biosphere.
Energies that are renewable like wind power, solar power, and hydro power would be the most beneficial to the future of America. By investing in technology that would sustain these energies, America could solve alot more of its problems cohesively.
Overall, I support Obama's energy plan. His distinct focus on Michigan and the Great Lakes, will cause advancements in many sources of energies, and will protect the overall water quality of the crucial Great Lakes Watershed.
McCain's plan to drill for oil on the continental shelfs of America is ridiculous. The drilling process could cause massive amounts of oil to get into the ocean, which would pollute aquatic plant life and animals. The drilling on continental shelves could also mess with future life forms. As most of our organic chemicals come into the world through hydrothermal vents in ocean vents, frillin in these crucial areas of biodiversity, could hinder the development of new life forms.
America's energy crisis needs to be solved now, without hesitation or delay, and i believe Barak Obama will provide the most efficient and favorable plan for changing the way America handles their energy.
Alternative energy sources bring hope to the future. Using natural things, suchs as the sun, wind, biofuels, and hydro-power for electricity, will improve the overall quality of our staggering environment.
Our current way of harvesting energy, is very detrimental to the environment. The harvesting of the fossil fuels, is bad enough for the ecology of our world. To get the fossil fuels needed for nuclear enery, we must mine down to extreme depths in the Earth's crust. When doing this, the drilling causes caverns in the Earth that cause sinkholes to occur, and caue the Earth's crust to collapse. This unnatural change to the Earth's geosphere can change many things tha regard to the Earth's biodiversity.
Drilling for oil can also cause oil deposits to diffuse into our water systems. The oil when enering our water systems, isn't miscible and causes a layer to form on our most crucial biosphere in the world. This mix of oil with water, is very bad for the future of biodiversity. Through the water cycle, the oil mixed with water will eventually get into condensed water, and be released as precipitation.
Fossil Fuel emissions are produced from the burning of oil. This process produces toxins that cause acid precipitation, that eventually infiltrates and pollutes the entirity of the planet. Through the consumption of acid rain, the toxins from fossil fuels eventually get into the systems of organsisms, ultimately polluting the whole of our planet.
I thnk that transitioning into alternative energies will be the most beneficial thing for America, and for our planet. Not only does America need to become ernergy independnt from foreign fuel, we need to develop cleaner sources of energy that won't pollute the various components of our biosphere.
Energies that are renewable like wind power, solar power, and hydro power would be the most beneficial to the future of America. By investing in technology that would sustain these energies, America could solve alot more of its problems cohesively.
Overall, I support Obama's energy plan. His distinct focus on Michigan and the Great Lakes, will cause advancements in many sources of energies, and will protect the overall water quality of the crucial Great Lakes Watershed.
McCain's plan to drill for oil on the continental shelfs of America is ridiculous. The drilling process could cause massive amounts of oil to get into the ocean, which would pollute aquatic plant life and animals. The drilling on continental shelves could also mess with future life forms. As most of our organic chemicals come into the world through hydrothermal vents in ocean vents, frillin in these crucial areas of biodiversity, could hinder the development of new life forms.
America's energy crisis needs to be solved now, without hesitation or delay, and i believe Barak Obama will provide the most efficient and favorable plan for changing the way America handles their energy.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Political Position on Energy-John McCain
Expanding Domestic Oil And Natural Gas Exploration And Production
John McCain Will Commit Our Country To Expanding Domestic Oil Exploration. The current federal moratorium on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf stands in the way of energy exploration and production. John McCain believes it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use. There is no easier or more direct way to prove to the world that we will no longer be subject to the whims of others than to expand our production capabilities. We have trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves in the U.S. at a time we are exporting hundreds of billions of dollars a year overseas to buy energy. This is the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. We should keep more of our dollars here in the U.S., lessen our foreign dependency, increase our domestic supplies, and reduce our trade deficit - 41% of which is due to oil imports. John McCain proposes to cooperate with the states and the Department of Defense in the decisions to develop these resources.
John McCain Believes In Promoting And Expanding The Use Of Our Domestic Supplies Of Natural Gas. When people are hurting, and struggling to afford gasoline, food, and other necessities, common sense requires that we draw upon America's own vast reserves of oil and natural gas. Within the United States we have tremendous reserves of natural gas. The Outer Continental Shelf alone contains 77 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. It is time that we capitalize on these significant resources and build the infrastructure needed to transport this important component of electricity generation and transportation fuel around the country.
Taking Action Now To Break Our Dependency On Foreign Oil By Reforming Our Transportation Sector
The Nation Cannot Reduce Its Dependency On Oil Unless We Change How We Power Our Transportation Sector.
John McCain's Clean Car Challenge. John McCain will issue a Clean Car Challenge to the automakers of America, in the form of a single and substantial tax credit for the consumer based on the reduction of carbon emissions. He will commit a $5,000 tax credit for each and every customer who buys a zero carbon emission car, encouraging automakers to be first on the market with these cars in order to capitalize on the consumer incentives. For other vehicles, a graduated tax credit will apply so that the lower the carbon emissions, the higher the tax credit.
John McCain Will Propose A $300 Million Prize To Improve Battery Technology For Full Commercial Development Of Plug-In Hybrid And Fully Electric Automobiles. A $300 million prize should be awarded for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars. That battery should deliver a power source at 30 percent of the current costs. At $300 million, the prize is one dollar for every man, woman and child in this country - and a small price to pay for breaking our dependence on oil.
John McCain Supports Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) And Believes They Should Play A Greater Role In Our Transportation Sector. In just three years, Brazil went from new cars sales that were about 5 percent FFVs to over 70 percent of new vehicles that were FFVs. American automakers have committed to make 50 percent of their cars FFVs by 2012. John McCain calls on automakers to make a more rapid and complete switch to FFVs.
John McCain Believes Alcohol-Based Fuels Hold Great Promise As Both An Alternative To Gasoline And As A Means of Expanding Consumers' Choices. Some choices such as ethanol are on the market right now. The second generation of alcohol-based fuels like cellulosic ethanol, which won't compete with food crops, are showing great potential.
Today, Isolationist Tariffs And Wasteful Special Interest Subsidies Are Not Moving Us Toward An Energy Solution. We need to level the playing field and eliminate mandates, subsidies, tariffs and price supports that focus exclusively on corn-based ethanol and prevent the development of market-based solutions which would provide us with better options for our fuel needs.
John McCain Will Effectively Enforce Existing CAFE Standards. John McCain has long supported CAFE standards - the mileage requirements that automobile manufacturers' cars must meet. Some carmakers ignore these standards, pay a small financial penalty, and add it to the price of their cars. John McCain believes that the penalties for not following these standards must be effective enough to compel all carmakers to produce fuel-efficient vehicles.
Investing In Clean, Alternative Sources Of Energy
John McCain Believes That The U.S. Must Become A Leader In A New International Green Economy. Green jobs and green technology will be vital to our economic future. There is no reason that the U.S. should not be a leader in developing and deploying these new technologies.
John McCain Will Commit $2 Billion Annually To Advancing Clean Coal Technologies. Coal produces the majority of our electricity today. Some believe that marketing viable clean coal technologies could be over 15 years away. John McCain believes that this is too long to wait, and we need to commit significant federal resources to the science, research and development that advance this critical technology. Once commercialized, the U.S. can then export these technologies to countries like China that are committed to using their coal - creating new American jobs and allowing the U.S. to play a greater role in the international green economy.
John McCain Will Put His Administration On Track To Construct 45 New Nuclear Power Plants By 2030 With The Ultimate Goal Of Eventually Constructing 100 New Plants. Nuclear power is a proven, zero-emission source of energy, and it is time we recommit to advancing our use of nuclear power. Currently, nuclear power produces 20% of our power, but the U.S. has not started construction on a new nuclear power plant in over 30 years. China, India and Russia have goals of building a combined total of over 100 new plants and we should be able to do the same. It is also critical that the U.S. be able to build the components for these plants and reactors within our country so that we are not dependent on foreign suppliers with long wait times to move forward with our nuclear plans.
John McCain Will Establish A Permanent Tax Credit Equal To 10 Percent Of Wages Spent On R&D. This reform will simplify the tax code, reward activity in the U.S., and make us more competitive with other countries. A permanent credit will provide an incentive to innovate and remove uncertainty. At a time when our companies need to be more competitive, we need to provide a permanent incentive to innovate, and remove the uncertainty now hanging over businesses as they make R&D investment decisions.
John McCain Will Encourage The Market For Alternative, Low Carbon Fuels Such As Wind, Hydro And Solar Power. According to the Department of Energy, wind could provide as much as one-fifth of electricity by 2030. The U.S. solar energy industry continued its double-digit annual growth rate in 2006. To develop these and other sources of renewable energy will require that we rationalize the current patchwork of temporary tax credits that provide commercial feasibility. John McCain believes in an even-handed system of tax credits that will remain in place until the market transforms sufficiently to the point where renewable energy no longer merits the taxpayers' dollars.
Protecting Our Environment And Addressing Climate Change: A Sound Energy Strategy Must Include A Solid Environmental Foundation
John McCain Proposes A Cap-And-Trade System That Would Set Limits On Greenhouse Gas Emissions While Encouraging The Development Of Low-Cost Compliance Options. A climate cap-and-trade mechanism would set a limit on greenhouse gas emissions and allow entities to buy and sell rights to emit, similar to the successful acid rain trading program of the early 1990s. The key feature of this mechanism is that it allows the market to decide and encourage the lowest-cost compliance options.
How Does A Cap-And-Trade System Work? A cap-and-trade system harnesses human ingenuity in the pursuit of alternatives to carbon-based fuels. Market participants are allotted total permits equal to the cap on greenhouse gas emissions. If they can invent, improve, or acquire a way to reduce their emissions, they can sell their extra permits for cash. The profit motive will coordinate the efforts of venture capitalists, corporate planners, entrepreneurs, and environmentalists on the common motive of reducing emissions.
Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets And Timetables:
2012: Return Emissions To 2005 Levels (18 Percent Above 1990 Levels)
2020: Return Emissions To 1990 Levels (15 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
2030: 22 Percent Below 1990 Levels (34 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
2050: 60 Percent Below 1990 Levels (66 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
The Cap-And-Trade System Would Allow For The Gradual Reduction Of Emissions. The cap-and-trade system would encompass electric power, transportation fuels, commercial business, and industrial business - sectors responsible for just under 90 percent of all emissions. Small businesses would be exempt. Initially, participants would be allowed to either make their own GHG reductions or purchase "offsets" - financial instruments representing a reduction, avoidance, or sequestration of greenhouse gas emissions practiced by other activities, such as agriculture - to cover 100 percent of their required reductions. Offsets would only be available through a program dedicated to ensure that all offset GHG emission reductions are real, measured and verifiable. The fraction of GHG emission reductions permitted via offsets would decline over time.
Promoting Energy Efficiency
John McCain Will Make Greening The Federal Government A Priority Of His Administration. The federal government is the largest electricity consumer on earth and occupies 3.3 billion square feet of space worldwide. It provides an enormous opportunity to lead by example. By applying a higher efficiency standard to new buildings leased or purchased or retrofitting existing buildings, we can save taxpayers substantial money in energy costs, and move the construction market in the direction of green technology.
John McCain Will Move The United States Toward Electricity Grid And Metering Improvements To Save Energy. John McCain will work to reduce red tape to allow a serious investment to upgrade our national grid to meet the demands of the 21st century - which will include a capacity to charge the electric cars that will one day fill the roads and highways of America. And to save both money and electrical power for our people and businesses, we will also need to deploy SmartMeter technologies. These new meters give customers a more precise picture of their overall energy consumption, and over time will encourage a more cost-efficient use of power.
Addressing Speculative Pricing Of Oil
John McCain Believes We Must Understand The Role Speculation Is Playing In Our Soaring Energy Prices. Congress already has investigations underway to examine this kind of wagering in our energy markets, unrelated to any kind of productive commerce, because it can distort the market, drive prices beyond rational limits, and put the investments and pensions of millions of Americans at risk. John McCain believes that where we find abuses, they need to be swiftly punished. To make sure it never happens again, we must reform the laws and regulations governing the oil futures market, so that they are just as clear and effective as the rules applied to stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.
John McCain Does Not Support A Windfall Profits Tax. A windfall profits tax on the oil companies will ultimately result in increasing our dependence on foreign oil and hinder investment in domestic exploration. Jimmy Carter put a windfall profits tax in to place with little to no useful results.
John McCain Will Commit Our Country To Expanding Domestic Oil Exploration. The current federal moratorium on drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf stands in the way of energy exploration and production. John McCain believes it is time for the federal government to lift these restrictions and to put our own reserves to use. There is no easier or more direct way to prove to the world that we will no longer be subject to the whims of others than to expand our production capabilities. We have trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves in the U.S. at a time we are exporting hundreds of billions of dollars a year overseas to buy energy. This is the largest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind. We should keep more of our dollars here in the U.S., lessen our foreign dependency, increase our domestic supplies, and reduce our trade deficit - 41% of which is due to oil imports. John McCain proposes to cooperate with the states and the Department of Defense in the decisions to develop these resources.
John McCain Believes In Promoting And Expanding The Use Of Our Domestic Supplies Of Natural Gas. When people are hurting, and struggling to afford gasoline, food, and other necessities, common sense requires that we draw upon America's own vast reserves of oil and natural gas. Within the United States we have tremendous reserves of natural gas. The Outer Continental Shelf alone contains 77 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. It is time that we capitalize on these significant resources and build the infrastructure needed to transport this important component of electricity generation and transportation fuel around the country.
Taking Action Now To Break Our Dependency On Foreign Oil By Reforming Our Transportation Sector
The Nation Cannot Reduce Its Dependency On Oil Unless We Change How We Power Our Transportation Sector.
John McCain's Clean Car Challenge. John McCain will issue a Clean Car Challenge to the automakers of America, in the form of a single and substantial tax credit for the consumer based on the reduction of carbon emissions. He will commit a $5,000 tax credit for each and every customer who buys a zero carbon emission car, encouraging automakers to be first on the market with these cars in order to capitalize on the consumer incentives. For other vehicles, a graduated tax credit will apply so that the lower the carbon emissions, the higher the tax credit.
John McCain Will Propose A $300 Million Prize To Improve Battery Technology For Full Commercial Development Of Plug-In Hybrid And Fully Electric Automobiles. A $300 million prize should be awarded for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars. That battery should deliver a power source at 30 percent of the current costs. At $300 million, the prize is one dollar for every man, woman and child in this country - and a small price to pay for breaking our dependence on oil.
John McCain Supports Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) And Believes They Should Play A Greater Role In Our Transportation Sector. In just three years, Brazil went from new cars sales that were about 5 percent FFVs to over 70 percent of new vehicles that were FFVs. American automakers have committed to make 50 percent of their cars FFVs by 2012. John McCain calls on automakers to make a more rapid and complete switch to FFVs.
John McCain Believes Alcohol-Based Fuels Hold Great Promise As Both An Alternative To Gasoline And As A Means of Expanding Consumers' Choices. Some choices such as ethanol are on the market right now. The second generation of alcohol-based fuels like cellulosic ethanol, which won't compete with food crops, are showing great potential.
Today, Isolationist Tariffs And Wasteful Special Interest Subsidies Are Not Moving Us Toward An Energy Solution. We need to level the playing field and eliminate mandates, subsidies, tariffs and price supports that focus exclusively on corn-based ethanol and prevent the development of market-based solutions which would provide us with better options for our fuel needs.
John McCain Will Effectively Enforce Existing CAFE Standards. John McCain has long supported CAFE standards - the mileage requirements that automobile manufacturers' cars must meet. Some carmakers ignore these standards, pay a small financial penalty, and add it to the price of their cars. John McCain believes that the penalties for not following these standards must be effective enough to compel all carmakers to produce fuel-efficient vehicles.
Investing In Clean, Alternative Sources Of Energy
John McCain Believes That The U.S. Must Become A Leader In A New International Green Economy. Green jobs and green technology will be vital to our economic future. There is no reason that the U.S. should not be a leader in developing and deploying these new technologies.
John McCain Will Commit $2 Billion Annually To Advancing Clean Coal Technologies. Coal produces the majority of our electricity today. Some believe that marketing viable clean coal technologies could be over 15 years away. John McCain believes that this is too long to wait, and we need to commit significant federal resources to the science, research and development that advance this critical technology. Once commercialized, the U.S. can then export these technologies to countries like China that are committed to using their coal - creating new American jobs and allowing the U.S. to play a greater role in the international green economy.
John McCain Will Put His Administration On Track To Construct 45 New Nuclear Power Plants By 2030 With The Ultimate Goal Of Eventually Constructing 100 New Plants. Nuclear power is a proven, zero-emission source of energy, and it is time we recommit to advancing our use of nuclear power. Currently, nuclear power produces 20% of our power, but the U.S. has not started construction on a new nuclear power plant in over 30 years. China, India and Russia have goals of building a combined total of over 100 new plants and we should be able to do the same. It is also critical that the U.S. be able to build the components for these plants and reactors within our country so that we are not dependent on foreign suppliers with long wait times to move forward with our nuclear plans.
John McCain Will Establish A Permanent Tax Credit Equal To 10 Percent Of Wages Spent On R&D. This reform will simplify the tax code, reward activity in the U.S., and make us more competitive with other countries. A permanent credit will provide an incentive to innovate and remove uncertainty. At a time when our companies need to be more competitive, we need to provide a permanent incentive to innovate, and remove the uncertainty now hanging over businesses as they make R&D investment decisions.
John McCain Will Encourage The Market For Alternative, Low Carbon Fuels Such As Wind, Hydro And Solar Power. According to the Department of Energy, wind could provide as much as one-fifth of electricity by 2030. The U.S. solar energy industry continued its double-digit annual growth rate in 2006. To develop these and other sources of renewable energy will require that we rationalize the current patchwork of temporary tax credits that provide commercial feasibility. John McCain believes in an even-handed system of tax credits that will remain in place until the market transforms sufficiently to the point where renewable energy no longer merits the taxpayers' dollars.
Protecting Our Environment And Addressing Climate Change: A Sound Energy Strategy Must Include A Solid Environmental Foundation
John McCain Proposes A Cap-And-Trade System That Would Set Limits On Greenhouse Gas Emissions While Encouraging The Development Of Low-Cost Compliance Options. A climate cap-and-trade mechanism would set a limit on greenhouse gas emissions and allow entities to buy and sell rights to emit, similar to the successful acid rain trading program of the early 1990s. The key feature of this mechanism is that it allows the market to decide and encourage the lowest-cost compliance options.
How Does A Cap-And-Trade System Work? A cap-and-trade system harnesses human ingenuity in the pursuit of alternatives to carbon-based fuels. Market participants are allotted total permits equal to the cap on greenhouse gas emissions. If they can invent, improve, or acquire a way to reduce their emissions, they can sell their extra permits for cash. The profit motive will coordinate the efforts of venture capitalists, corporate planners, entrepreneurs, and environmentalists on the common motive of reducing emissions.
Greenhouse Gas Emission Targets And Timetables:
2012: Return Emissions To 2005 Levels (18 Percent Above 1990 Levels)
2020: Return Emissions To 1990 Levels (15 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
2030: 22 Percent Below 1990 Levels (34 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
2050: 60 Percent Below 1990 Levels (66 Percent Below 2005 Levels)
The Cap-And-Trade System Would Allow For The Gradual Reduction Of Emissions. The cap-and-trade system would encompass electric power, transportation fuels, commercial business, and industrial business - sectors responsible for just under 90 percent of all emissions. Small businesses would be exempt. Initially, participants would be allowed to either make their own GHG reductions or purchase "offsets" - financial instruments representing a reduction, avoidance, or sequestration of greenhouse gas emissions practiced by other activities, such as agriculture - to cover 100 percent of their required reductions. Offsets would only be available through a program dedicated to ensure that all offset GHG emission reductions are real, measured and verifiable. The fraction of GHG emission reductions permitted via offsets would decline over time.
Promoting Energy Efficiency
John McCain Will Make Greening The Federal Government A Priority Of His Administration. The federal government is the largest electricity consumer on earth and occupies 3.3 billion square feet of space worldwide. It provides an enormous opportunity to lead by example. By applying a higher efficiency standard to new buildings leased or purchased or retrofitting existing buildings, we can save taxpayers substantial money in energy costs, and move the construction market in the direction of green technology.
John McCain Will Move The United States Toward Electricity Grid And Metering Improvements To Save Energy. John McCain will work to reduce red tape to allow a serious investment to upgrade our national grid to meet the demands of the 21st century - which will include a capacity to charge the electric cars that will one day fill the roads and highways of America. And to save both money and electrical power for our people and businesses, we will also need to deploy SmartMeter technologies. These new meters give customers a more precise picture of their overall energy consumption, and over time will encourage a more cost-efficient use of power.
Addressing Speculative Pricing Of Oil
John McCain Believes We Must Understand The Role Speculation Is Playing In Our Soaring Energy Prices. Congress already has investigations underway to examine this kind of wagering in our energy markets, unrelated to any kind of productive commerce, because it can distort the market, drive prices beyond rational limits, and put the investments and pensions of millions of Americans at risk. John McCain believes that where we find abuses, they need to be swiftly punished. To make sure it never happens again, we must reform the laws and regulations governing the oil futures market, so that they are just as clear and effective as the rules applied to stocks, bonds, and other financial instruments.
John McCain Does Not Support A Windfall Profits Tax. A windfall profits tax on the oil companies will ultimately result in increasing our dependence on foreign oil and hinder investment in domestic exploration. Jimmy Carter put a windfall profits tax in to place with little to no useful results.
Political Position on Energy-Barack Obama
The Obama-Biden comprehensive New Energy for America plan will:
* Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump
* Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.
* Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined.
* Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America.
* Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
* Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
Provide Short-term Relief to American Families
*Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families.
*Obama and Biden will enact a windfall profits tax on excessive oil company profits to give American families an immediate $1,000 emergency energy rebate to help families pay rising bills. This relief would be a down payment on the Obama-Biden long-term plan to provide middle-class families with at least $1,000 per year in permanent tax relief.
Crack Down on Excessive Energy Speculation.
*Barack Obama and Joe Biden will close energy industry market loopholes and increase transparency to prevent traders from unfairly lining their pockets, while driving up oil prices at the expense of the American people.
*Swap Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Cut Prices.
*With oil prices doubling in the past year, Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we have an economic emergency that requires a limited, responsible swap of light oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for heavy crude oil to help bring down prices at the pump.
Eliminate Our Current Imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 Years
*
Increase Fuel Economy Standards.
*Obama and Biden will increase fuel economy standards 4 percent per year while providing $4 billion for domestic automakers to retool their manufacturing facilities in America to produce these vehicles.
*
Get 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars on the Road by 2015.
These vehicles can get up to 150 miles per gallon. Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we should work to ensure these cars are built here in America, instead of factories overseas.
*
Create a New $7,000 Tax Credit for Purchasing Advanced Vehicles.
*
Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
*Obama and Biden will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce the carbon in our fuels 10 percent by 2020. Obama and Biden will also require 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels to be phased into our fuel supply by 2030.
*
A “Use it or Lose It” Approach to Existing Oil and Gas Leases.
*Obama and Biden will require oil companies to develop the 68 million acres of land (over 40 million of which are offshore) which they have already leased and are not drilling on.
*
Promote the Responsible Domestic Production of Oil and Natural Gas.
*An Obama-Biden administration will establish a process for early identification of any infrastructure obstacles/shortages or possible federal permitting process delays to drilling in the Bakken Shale formation, the Barnett shale formation, and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
Create Millions of New Green Jobs
*Ensure 10 percent of Our Electricity Comes from Renewable Sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
*Deploy the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest Energy Source -- Energy Efficiency.
Obama and Biden will set an aggressive energy efficiency goal -- to reduce electricity demand 15 percent from projected levels by 2020.
Weatherize One Million Homes Annually.
*Obama and Biden will make a national commitment to weatherize at least one million low-income homes each year for the next decade, which can reduce energy usage across the economy and help moderate energy prices for all.
*
Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology.
Obama’s Department of Energy will enter into public private partnerships to develop five “first-of-a-kind” commercial scale coal-fired plants with clean carbon capture and sequestration technology.
*
Prioritize the Construction of the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.
As president, Obama will work with stakeholders to facilitate construction of the pipeline. Not only is this pipeline critical to our energy security, it will create thousands of new jobs.
Reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80 Percent by 2050
*Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
*The Obama-Biden cap-and-trade policy will require all pollution credits to be auctioned, and proceeds will go to investments in a clean energy future, habitat protections, and rebates and other transition relief for families.
*Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change.
*Obama and Biden will re-engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem. They will also create a Global Energy Forum of the world’s largest emitters to focus exclusively on global energy and environmental issues.
* Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump
* Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future.
* Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined.
* Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America.
* Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
* Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
Provide Short-term Relief to American Families
*Enact a Windfall Profits Tax to Provide a $1,000 Emergency Energy Rebate to American Families.
*Obama and Biden will enact a windfall profits tax on excessive oil company profits to give American families an immediate $1,000 emergency energy rebate to help families pay rising bills. This relief would be a down payment on the Obama-Biden long-term plan to provide middle-class families with at least $1,000 per year in permanent tax relief.
Crack Down on Excessive Energy Speculation.
*Barack Obama and Joe Biden will close energy industry market loopholes and increase transparency to prevent traders from unfairly lining their pockets, while driving up oil prices at the expense of the American people.
*Swap Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to Cut Prices.
*With oil prices doubling in the past year, Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we have an economic emergency that requires a limited, responsible swap of light oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) for heavy crude oil to help bring down prices at the pump.
Eliminate Our Current Imports from the Middle East and Venezuela within 10 Years
*
Increase Fuel Economy Standards.
*Obama and Biden will increase fuel economy standards 4 percent per year while providing $4 billion for domestic automakers to retool their manufacturing facilities in America to produce these vehicles.
*
Get 1 Million Plug-In Hybrid Cars on the Road by 2015.
These vehicles can get up to 150 miles per gallon. Barack Obama and Joe Biden believe we should work to ensure these cars are built here in America, instead of factories overseas.
*
Create a New $7,000 Tax Credit for Purchasing Advanced Vehicles.
*
Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
*Obama and Biden will establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce the carbon in our fuels 10 percent by 2020. Obama and Biden will also require 60 billion gallons of advanced biofuels to be phased into our fuel supply by 2030.
*
A “Use it or Lose It” Approach to Existing Oil and Gas Leases.
*Obama and Biden will require oil companies to develop the 68 million acres of land (over 40 million of which are offshore) which they have already leased and are not drilling on.
*
Promote the Responsible Domestic Production of Oil and Natural Gas.
*An Obama-Biden administration will establish a process for early identification of any infrastructure obstacles/shortages or possible federal permitting process delays to drilling in the Bakken Shale formation, the Barnett shale formation, and the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
Create Millions of New Green Jobs
*Ensure 10 percent of Our Electricity Comes from Renewable Sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025.
*Deploy the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest Energy Source -- Energy Efficiency.
Obama and Biden will set an aggressive energy efficiency goal -- to reduce electricity demand 15 percent from projected levels by 2020.
Weatherize One Million Homes Annually.
*Obama and Biden will make a national commitment to weatherize at least one million low-income homes each year for the next decade, which can reduce energy usage across the economy and help moderate energy prices for all.
*
Develop and Deploy Clean Coal Technology.
Obama’s Department of Energy will enter into public private partnerships to develop five “first-of-a-kind” commercial scale coal-fired plants with clean carbon capture and sequestration technology.
*
Prioritize the Construction of the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline.
As president, Obama will work with stakeholders to facilitate construction of the pipeline. Not only is this pipeline critical to our energy security, it will create thousands of new jobs.
Reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80 Percent by 2050
*Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.
*The Obama-Biden cap-and-trade policy will require all pollution credits to be auctioned, and proceeds will go to investments in a clean energy future, habitat protections, and rebates and other transition relief for families.
*Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change.
*Obama and Biden will re-engage with the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) -- the main international forum dedicated to addressing the climate problem. They will also create a Global Energy Forum of the world’s largest emitters to focus exclusively on global energy and environmental issues.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Global Warming Links
1. www.epa.gov/climatechange/
2. www.climatehotmap.org/
3. www.globalwarming.org/
4. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
5. www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
2. www.climatehotmap.org/
3. www.globalwarming.org/
4. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
5. www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Energy Package signed into Law by Jennifer Granholm
Jennifer Granholm signed an energy package law into effect in Eaton Rapids and Detroit, Michigan. The new energy act will initiate Michigan's transition into creating more jobs in the renewable energy field. The new law mandates that Michigan must receive 10% of its energy from alternative resources by the end of 2015.
"The law was signed right here in Eaton Rapids and I support the law but I believe that alternative energy should supply more than 10% of our energy," said Mrs. Nutt, a science teacher at ERHS. "The law should have required 25% of our energy to be alternative by 2020."
The law was signed on a balcony in the manufacturing plant at Dowding Industries in Eaton Rapids. At the particular plant it was signed in, Dowding is planning on building parts that function in energy producing wind-turbines.
"We have a manufacturing base right here in Michigan, and we should easily be able to transition into manufacturing technology for renewable energies," said Mrs.Grivins, a science teacher at ERHS. "Renewable energies will create more jobs for Michigan that require advancing scientific and technological careers."
There are many different alternative energy sources that can be used in place of burning fossil fuels. The burning of fossils fuels is an easy way to harvest mass amounts of energy, but it is not environmentally friendly at all.
"The intensive mining for fossil fuels is really bad for the environment because they have to drill down really deep, which leaves caverns in the Earth's crust, and causes oil to leak into our Water supply," said Grivins. "Renewable energies in Michigan will improve the overall water quality of the Great Lakes greatly, because most of the mercury pollution in our Great Lakes is caused by the burning of coal."
There are many different things that can be used to make alternative energies. Not only would the transition into using these resources be beneficial to our planet, it would decrease America's dependence on foreign oil.
"Being less dependent on gases and oil would allow us to become more environmentally and economically independent," said Nutt. "It could also start the new business boom right here in Michigan."
The transition into alternative energies in Michigan could be the start to an energy revolution around the world. Not only would it provide more efficient ways to receive energy, it would save the planet from the downfall of Global Warming.
"Greenhouse Gases caused by fossil fuel emissions change the climate cycles very quickly, and plants and animals can't adapt or evolve that quickly," said Grivins. "Renewable energies won't be releasing Greenhouse Gases."
Many things can be done to improve the energy production in the United States, while potentially saving the world's ecology.
"Less Carbon Dioxide emissions would reduces Global Warming Rates and hopefully make the ozone hole get smaller," said Nutt. "If we don't transition to renewable energy sources many living things will have to quickly adapt, or die."
Residential energy rates are expected to rise with the passing of Michigan's energy package law. In a time of economic recession, the rising costs might cause people to speculate over the benefits of alternative energy, and even doubt their effectiveness.
"We have abundant sources of renewable energy sources in America and around the Great Lakes, which could lessen our dependence on foreign fossil fuels," said Grivins. "We're seeing the negatives initially because energy costs will increase, but over time the costs should stabelize and eventually be beneficial."
"The law was signed right here in Eaton Rapids and I support the law but I believe that alternative energy should supply more than 10% of our energy," said Mrs. Nutt, a science teacher at ERHS. "The law should have required 25% of our energy to be alternative by 2020."
The law was signed on a balcony in the manufacturing plant at Dowding Industries in Eaton Rapids. At the particular plant it was signed in, Dowding is planning on building parts that function in energy producing wind-turbines.
"We have a manufacturing base right here in Michigan, and we should easily be able to transition into manufacturing technology for renewable energies," said Mrs.Grivins, a science teacher at ERHS. "Renewable energies will create more jobs for Michigan that require advancing scientific and technological careers."
There are many different alternative energy sources that can be used in place of burning fossil fuels. The burning of fossils fuels is an easy way to harvest mass amounts of energy, but it is not environmentally friendly at all.
"The intensive mining for fossil fuels is really bad for the environment because they have to drill down really deep, which leaves caverns in the Earth's crust, and causes oil to leak into our Water supply," said Grivins. "Renewable energies in Michigan will improve the overall water quality of the Great Lakes greatly, because most of the mercury pollution in our Great Lakes is caused by the burning of coal."
There are many different things that can be used to make alternative energies. Not only would the transition into using these resources be beneficial to our planet, it would decrease America's dependence on foreign oil.
"Being less dependent on gases and oil would allow us to become more environmentally and economically independent," said Nutt. "It could also start the new business boom right here in Michigan."
The transition into alternative energies in Michigan could be the start to an energy revolution around the world. Not only would it provide more efficient ways to receive energy, it would save the planet from the downfall of Global Warming.
"Greenhouse Gases caused by fossil fuel emissions change the climate cycles very quickly, and plants and animals can't adapt or evolve that quickly," said Grivins. "Renewable energies won't be releasing Greenhouse Gases."
Many things can be done to improve the energy production in the United States, while potentially saving the world's ecology.
"Less Carbon Dioxide emissions would reduces Global Warming Rates and hopefully make the ozone hole get smaller," said Nutt. "If we don't transition to renewable energy sources many living things will have to quickly adapt, or die."
Residential energy rates are expected to rise with the passing of Michigan's energy package law. In a time of economic recession, the rising costs might cause people to speculate over the benefits of alternative energy, and even doubt their effectiveness.
"We have abundant sources of renewable energy sources in America and around the Great Lakes, which could lessen our dependence on foreign fossil fuels," said Grivins. "We're seeing the negatives initially because energy costs will increase, but over time the costs should stabelize and eventually be beneficial."
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Webquest Activity-Global Warming
In this activity I learned alot about global warming. To find my answers, I went online and searched for them. While doing this, I learned alot about the impact of global warming on humans, plants, and the various earthly ecosystems.
One of the sad things I also learned, was that the United States produces the highest amount of fossil fuel emsissions as greenhouse gas. Right beneath the United Statesn is Western Europe. Places with higher populations tend to omit the largest amount of greenhouse gases due to industry, transportation, and the need for higher amounts of nuclear energy. China is projected to increase their fossil fuel emission rate significantly, which is sad because the advanced country should be taking steps to reduce their emissions. Australia is the most environmentally consious country, and the omit the least amount of C02 as a greenhouse gas.
This activity made me realize the need for the entire globe ro reduce their carbon emissions. If we took little steps to improve our environment now, alot can be changed for the future
One of the sad things I also learned, was that the United States produces the highest amount of fossil fuel emsissions as greenhouse gas. Right beneath the United Statesn is Western Europe. Places with higher populations tend to omit the largest amount of greenhouse gases due to industry, transportation, and the need for higher amounts of nuclear energy. China is projected to increase their fossil fuel emission rate significantly, which is sad because the advanced country should be taking steps to reduce their emissions. Australia is the most environmentally consious country, and the omit the least amount of C02 as a greenhouse gas.
This activity made me realize the need for the entire globe ro reduce their carbon emissions. If we took little steps to improve our environment now, alot can be changed for the future
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Global Warming Research
Environmental Protection Agency
EPA:
10/09/08
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
Basic Information
The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth's orbit, and the amount of energy released from the Sun have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution have also changed the composition of the atmosphere and therefore very likely are influencing the Earth's climate.
For over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation have caused the concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space, somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.
Greenhouse gases are necessary to life as we know it, because they keep the planet's surface warmer than it otherwise would be. But, as the concentrations of these gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, the Earth's temperature is climbing above past levels. According to NOAA and NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4ºF in the last 100 years. The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities. Other aspects of the climate are also changing such as rainfall patterns, snow and ice cover, and sea level.
If greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. Scientists are certain that human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will change the planet's climate. But they are not sure by how much it will change, at what rate it will change, or what the exact effects will be. See the Science and Health and Environmental Effects sections of this site for more detail, or review the answers to some frequent science questions.
U.S. Climate Policy
The United States government has established a comprehensive policy to address climate change. This policy has three basic components:
• Slowing the growth of emissions
• Strengthening science, technology and institutions
• Enhancing international cooperation
To implement its climate policy, the Federal government is using voluntary and incentive-based programs to reduce emissions and has established programs to promote climate technology and science. This strategy incorporates know-how from many federal agencies and harnesses the power of the private sector.
In February 2002, the United States announced a comprehensive strategy to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. Greenhouse gas intensity is a measurement of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity. Meeting this commitment will prevent the release of more than 100 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent emissions to the atmosphere (annually) by 2012 and more than 500 million metric tons (cumulatively) between 2002 and 2012.
EPA plays a significant role in helping the Federal government reach the United States' intensity goal. EPA has many current and near-term initiatives that encourage voluntary reductions from a variety of stakeholders. Initiatives, such as ENERGY STAR, Climate Leaders, and our Methane Voluntary Programs, encourage emission reductions from large corporations, consumers, industrial and commercial buildings, and many major industrial sectors. For details on these and other initiatives as well as other aspects of U.S. policy, visit the U.S. Climate Policy section of the site.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
In the U.S., our energy-related activities account for three-quarters of our human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, mostly in the form of carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. More than half the energy-related emissions come from large stationary sources such as power plants, while about a third comes from transportation. Industrial processes (such as the production of cement, steel, and aluminum), agriculture, forestry, other land use, and waste management are also important sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.
For a better understanding of where greenhouse gas emissions come from, governments at the federal, state and local levels prepare emissions inventories, which track emissions from various parts of the economy such as transportation, electricity production, industry, agriculture, forestry, and other sectors. EPA publishes the official national inventory of US greenhouse gas emissions, and the latest greenhouse gas inventory shows that in 2005 the U.S. emitted over 7.2 billon metric tons of greenhouse gases (a million metric tons of CO2 equivalents (MMTCO2e) is roughly equal to the annual GHG emissions of an average U.S. power plant.) Visit the Emissions section of this site to learn more, or review the answers to some frequent emissions questions.
Health and Environmental Effects
Climate change affects people, plants, and animals. Scientists are working to better understand future climate change and how the effects will vary by region and over time.
Scientists have observed that some changes are already occurring. Observed effects include sea level rise, shrinking glaciers, changes in the range and distribution of plants and animals, trees blooming earlier, lengthening of growing seasons, ice on rivers and lakes freezing later and breaking up earlier, and thawing of permafrost. Another key issue being studied is how societies and the Earth's environment will adapt to or cope with climate change.
In the United States, scientists believe that most areas will to continue to warm, although some will likely warm more than others. It remains very difficult to predict which parts of the country will become wetter or drier, but scientists generally expect increased precipitation and evaporation, and drier soil in the middle parts of the country. Northern regions such as Alaska are expected to experience the most warming. In fact, Alaska has been experiencing significant changes in climate in recent years that may be at least partly related to human caused global climate change.
Human health can be affected directly and indirectly by climate change in part through extreme periods of heat and cold, storms, and climate-sensitive diseases such as malaria, and smog episodes. For more information on these and other environmental effects, please visit the Health and Environmental Effects section of this site, or review the answers to some frequent effects questions.
What You Can Do
Greenhouse gases are emitted as a result of the energy we use by driving and using electricity and through other activities that support our quality of life like growing food and raising livestock. Greenhouse gas emissions can be minimized through simple measures like changing light bulbs in your home and properly inflating your tires to improve your car's fuel economy. The What You Can Do section of the climate change site identifies over 25 action steps that individuals can take to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the nation's energy independence and also save money.
State and local governments and businesses play an important role in meeting the national goal of reducing greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent by 2012. For example, major corporations, states and local organizations are taking action through participation in a wide range of EPA and other federal voluntary programs.
You can start by assessing your own contribution to the problem, by using EPA's personal greenhouse gas emissions calculator to estimate your household's annual emissions. Once you know about how much you emit, you use the tool to see how simple steps you take at home, at the office, on the road, and at school can reduce your emissions. Visit the What You Can Do section of this site to learn more.
Past Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.htmlRelated Links
CCSP: Product 3.4 - Abrupt Climate Change
NASA: Paleoclimatology Site
NOAA
• Climate Timeline
• Paleoclimatology Program
• Abrupt Climate Change Web site
Causes of Change | Rates of change | The Last 2,000 Years
The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. From glacial periods (or "ice ages") where ice covered significant portions of the Earth to interglacial periods where ice retreated to the poles or melted entirely - the climate has continuously changed.
Scientists have been able to piece together a picture of the Earth's climate dating back decades to millions of years ago by analyzing a number of surrogate, or "proxy," measures of climate such as ice cores, boreholes, tree rings, glacier lengths, pollen remains, and ocean sediments, and by studying changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun.
This page contains information about the causes of climate change throughout the Earth's history, the rates at which the climate has changed, as well as information about climate change during the last 2,000 years.
Causes of Change Prior to the Industrial Era (pre-1780)
Known causes, “drivers” or “forcings” of past climate change include:
• Changes in the Earth's orbit: Changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit (or eccentricity) as well as the Earth's tilt and precession affect the amount of sunlight received on the Earth's surface. These orbital processes -- which function in cycles of 100,000 (eccentricity), 41,000 (tilt), and 19,000 to 23,000 (precession) years -- are thought to be the most significant drivers of ice ages according to the theory of Mulitin Milankovitch, a Serbian mathematician (1879-1958). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observatory offers additional information about orbital variations and the Milankovitch Theory.
• Changes in the sun's intensity: Changes occurring within (or inside) the sun can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface. The intensity of the sunlight can cause either warming (for stronger solar intensity) or cooling (for weaker solar intensity). According to NASA research, reduced solar activity from the 1400s to the 1700s was likely a key factor in the “Little Ice Age” which resulted in a slight cooling of North America, Europe and probably other areas around the globe. (See additional discussion under The Last 2,000 Years.)
• Volcanic eruptions: Volcanoes can affect the climate because they can emit aerosols and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
o Aerosol emissions: Volcanic aerosols tend to block sunlight and contribute to short term cooling. Aerosols do not produce long-term change because they leave the atmosphere not long after they are emitted. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the eruption of the Tambora Volcano in Indonesia in 1815 lowered global temperatures by as much as 5ºF and historical accounts in New England describe 1816 as “the year without a summer.”
o Carbon dioxide emissions: Volcanoes also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas, which has a warming effect. For about two-thirds of the last 400 million years, geologic evidence suggests CO2 levels and temperatures were considerably higher than present. One theory is that volcanic eruptions from rapid sea floor spreading elevated CO2 concentrations, enhancing the greenhouse effect and raising temperatures. However, the evidence for this theory is not conclusive and there are alternative explanations for historic CO2 levels (NRC, 2005). While volcanoes may have raised pre-historic CO2 levels and temperatures, according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, human activities now emit 130 times as much CO2 as volcanoes (whose emissions are relatively modest compared to some earlier times).
These climate change “drivers” often trigger additional changes or “feedbacks” within the climate system that can amplify or dampen the climate's initial response to them (whether the response is warming or cooling). For example:
• Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations: The heating or cooling of the Earth's surface can cause changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. For example, when global temperatures become warmer, carbon dioxide is released from the oceans. When changes in the Earth's orbit trigger a warm (or interglacial) period, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide may amplify the warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect. When temperatures become cooler, CO2 enters the ocean and contributes to additional cooling. During at least the last 650,000 years, CO2 levels have tended to track the glacial cycles (IPCC, 2007). That is, during warm interglacial periods, CO2 levels have been high and during cool glacial periods, CO2 levels have been low (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Fluctuations in temperature (red line) and in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (yellow) over the past 649,000 years. The vertical red bar at the end is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past two centuries and before 2007. Click on thumbnail for a full-size image and references.
Changes in ocean currents: The heating or cooling of the Earth's surface can cause changes in ocean currents. Because ocean currents play a significant role in distributing heat around the Earth, changes in these currents can bring about
Rates of Change
Studies of the Earth's previous climate suggest periods of stability as well as periods of rapid change. Recent climate research suggests:
• Interglacial climates (such as the present) tend to be more stable than cooler, glacial climates. For example, the climate during the current and previous interglacials (known as the Holocene and Eemian interglacials) has been more stable than the most recent glacial period (known as the Last Glacial Maximum). This glacial period was characterized by a long string of widespread, large and abrupt climate changes (NRC, 2002).
• Abrupt or rapid climate changes tend to frequently accompany transitions between glacial and interglacial periods (and vice versa). For example, a significant part of the Northern Hemisphere (particularly around Greenland) may have experienced warming ratesof 14-28ºF over several decades during and after the most recent ice age (IPCC, 2007).
While abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the Earth's history, human civilization arose during a period of relative climate stability.
The Last 2,000 Years
During the last 2,000 years, the climate has been relatively stable. Scientists have identified three departures from this stability, known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (also referred to as the Medieval Warm Period), the Little Ice Age and the Industrial Era:
• The Medieval Climate Anomaly: Between roughly 900 and 1300 AD, evidence suggests Europe, Greenland and Asia experienced relative warmth. While historical accounts and other evidence document the warmth that occurred in some regions, the geographical extent, magnitude and timing of the warmth during this period is uncertain (NRC, 2006). The American West experienced very dry conditions around this time.
• The Little Ice Age: A wide variety of evidence supports the global existence of a "Little Ice Age" (this was not a true "ice age" since major ice sheets did not develop) between about 1500 and 1850 (NRC, 2006). Average temperatures were possibly up to 2ºF colder than today, but varied by region.
• The Industrial Era: An additional warm period has emerged in the last 100 years, coinciding with substantially increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities (see Recent Climate Change for more information).
Prior to the Industrial Era, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age had defined the upper and lower boundaries of the climate's recent natural variability and are a reflection of changes in climate drivers (the sun's variability and volcanic activity) and the climate's internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans).
The issue of whether the temperature rise of last 100 years crossed over the warm limit of the boundary defined by the Medieval Climate Anomaly has been a controversial topic in the science community. The National Academy of Sciences recently completed a study to assess the efforts to reconstruct temperatures of the past one to two millennia (see Figure 2) and place the Earth's current warming in historical context (NRC, 2006).
Figure 2: Reconstructions of (Northern Hemisphere average or global average) surface temperature variations from six research teams (in different color shades) along with the instrumental record of global average surface temperature (in black). Each curve illustrates a somewhat different history of temperature changes, with a range of uncertainties that tend to increase backward in time (as indicated by the shading). Reference: NRC, 2006. (Figure reprinted with permission from Surface Temperature Reconstructions© (2006) by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies Press , Washington, D.C.)
According to the study (NRC, 2006):
• There is a high level of confidence that the global average temperature during the last few decades was warmer than any comparable period during the last 400 years.
• Present evidence suggests that temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than any period of comparable length since A.D. 900. However, uncertainties associated with this statement increase substantially backward in time.
• Very little confidence can be assigned to estimates of hemisphere average or global average temperature prior to A.D. 900 due to limited data coverage and challenges in analyzing older data.
References
• IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning (eds.)].
• National Research Council (NRC), 2002: Abrupt Climate Change, Inevitable Surprises. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
• National Research Council (NRC), 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
• National Research Council (NRC), 2006. Surface Temperature Reconstructions For the Last 2,000 Years. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Recent Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentcc.html
Since the Industrial Revolution (around 1750), human activities have substantially added to the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels and biomass (living matter such as vegetation) has also resulted in emissions of aerosols that absorb and emit heat, and reflect light.
The addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. The changes in the atmosphere have likely influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging.
The following pages provide a summary of the atmosphere and climate changes observed during the Industrial Era and, where possible, current understanding of why the changes have occurred:
• Atmosphere Changes
• Temperature Changes
• Precipitation and Storm Changes
• Sea Level Changes
Land Cover and Land Use Change
In addition to changes in the atmosphere’s composition, changes in the land surface can have important effects on climate. For example, a change in land use and cover can affect temperature by changing how much solar radiation the land reflects and absorbs. Processes such as deforestation, reforestation, desertification and urbanization often contribute to changes in climate (including temperature, wind and precipitation) in the places they occur. These effects may be significant regionally, but reduced when averaged over the entire globe.
Changes in land cover and land use can also affect the amount of carbon dioxide taken up (or sequestered) or released by the land surface. For more information, visit EPA’s Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry Site.
The content of this Web site focuses on global changes in climate from changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. For more information on the state of knowledge of land-use change on climate, see the Climate Change Science Program's Strategic Plan's Chapter on Land Use/Land Cover Change.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futurecc.html
Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will increase during the next century unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease substantially from present levels. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations are very likely to raise the Earth's average temperature, influence precipitation and some storm patterns as well as raise sea levels (IPCC, 2007). The magnitude of these changes, however, is uncertain.
The amount and speed of future climate change will ultimately depend on:
• Whether greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations increase, stay the same or decrease.
• How strongly features of the climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation and sea level) respond to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations.
• How much the climate varies as a result of natural influences (e.g. from volcanic activity and changes in the sun ’s intensity) and its internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans).
Climate Models
Virtually all published estimates of how the climate could change in the future are produced by computer models of the Earth’s climate system. These models are known as general circulation models (GCMs). According to the IPCC (2007):
“[C]onfidence in models comes from their physical basis, and their skill in representing observed climate and past climate changes. Models have proven to be extremely important tools for simulating and understanding climate, and there is considerable confidence that they are able to provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at larger scales. Models continue to have significant limitations, such as in their representation of clouds, which lead to uncertainties in the magnitude and timing, as well as regional details, of predicted climate change. Nevertheless, over several decades of model development, they have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.”
It is important to recognize that projections of climate change in specific areas are not forecasts comparable to tomorrow’s weather forecast. Rather, they are hypothetical examples of how the climate might change and usually contain a range of possibilities as opposed to one specific high likelihood outcome.
The following pages provide a summary of the projected changes in the atmosphere and climate over the next century based on the current state of knowledge:
• Future Atmosphere Changes in Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Concentrations
• Future Temperature Changes
• Future Precipitation and Storm Changes
• Future Sea Level Changes
As with any field of scientific study, there are uncertainties associated with the science of climate change. This does not imply that scientists do not have confidence in many aspects of climate science. Some aspects of the science are known with virtual certainty1, because they are based on well-known physical laws and documented trends. Current understanding of many other aspects of climate change ranges from “very likely” to “uncertain.”
What's Known
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/stateofknowledge.html
Scientists know with virtual certainty that:
• Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times are well-documented and understood.
• The atmospheric buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.
• An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 1.0 to 1.7°F occurred from 1906-2005. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans (IPCC, 2007).
• The major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. It is therefore virtually certain that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise over the next few decades.
• Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to warm the planet.
What's Very Likely?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" (IPCC, 2007). In short, a growing number of scientific analyses indicate, but cannot prove, that rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are contributing to climate change (as theory predicts). In the coming decades, scientists anticipate that as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise, average global temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise as a result and precipitation patterns will change.
What's Not Certain?
Important scientific questions remain about how much warming will occur, how fast it will occur, and how the warming will affect the rest of the climate system including precipitation patterns and storms. Answering these questions will require advances in scientific knowledge in a number of areas:
• Improving understanding of natural climatic variations, changes in the sun's energy, land-use changes, the warming or cooling effects of pollutant aerosols, and the impacts of changing humidity and cloud cover.
• Determining the relative contribution to climate change of human activities and natural causes.
• Projecting future greenhouse emissions and how the climate system will respond within a narrow range.
• Improving understanding of the potential for rapid or abrupt climate change.
Addressing these and other areas of scientific uncertainty is a major priority of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). The CCSP is developing twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment products to advance scientific understanding of these uncertainty areas by the end of 2008. More information
Greenhouse Gas Overview
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/index.htmlverview
Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere are often called greenhouse gases. This section of the EPA Climate Change Site provides information and data on emissions of greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere, and also the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. For more information on the science of climate change, please visit EPA's climate change science home page.
Some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide occur naturally and are emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes and human activities. Other greenhouse gases (e.g., fluorinated gases) are created and emitted solely through human activities. The principal greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere because of human activities are:
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid waste, trees and wood products, and also as a result of other chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Carbon dioxide is also removed from the atmosphere (or “sequestered”) when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle.
• Methane (CH4): Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane emissions also result from livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O): Nitrous oxide is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.
• Fluorinated Gases: Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (i.e., CFCs, HCFCs, and halons). These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases (“High GWP gases”).
National Goal to Reduce Emissions
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/policy/intensitygoal.html Intensity
The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. This initiative puts America on a path to slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, and -- as the science supports -- to stop, and then reverse that growth.
What is our Greenhouse Gas Intensity?
Greenhouse gas intensity is the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to economic output. The U.S. goal is to lower emissions from an estimated 183 metric tons per million dollars of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2002, to 151 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2012. The U.S. commitment will achieve 100 million metric tons of reduced emissions in 2012 alone, with more than 500 million metric tons in cumulative savings over the entire decade. The policy focuses on reducing emissions through technology improvements and dissemination, improving the efficiency of energy use, voluntary programs with industry and shifts to cleaner fuels.
The intensity-based approach promotes near-term opportunities (e.g. voluntary programs and partnerships) to conserve fossil fuel, recover methane and sequester carbon. These programs encourage the adoption of existing technologies, energy efficiency improvements and renewable resources to reduce emissions cost-effectively. In the longer term, development and deployment of breakthrough technologies will provide safe and reliable energy to fuel our economy with reduced or no greenhouse gas emissions.
Health and Environmental http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/index.htmlEffects
Many elements of human society and the environment are sensitive to climate variability and change. Human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, coastal areas, and heating and cooling requirements are examples of climate-sensitive systems.
Rising average temperatures are already affecting the environment. Some observed changes include shrinking of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes, lengthening of growing seasons, shifts in plant and animal ranges and earlier flowering of trees (IPCC, 2007).
Global temperatures are expected to continue to rise as human activities continue to add carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse (or heat-trapping) gases to the atmosphere. Most of the United States is expected to experience an increase in average temperature (IPCC, 2007). Precipitation changes, which are also very important to consider when assessing climate change effects, are more difficult to predict. Whether or not rainfall will increase or decrease remains difficult to project for specific regions.
The extent of climate change effects, and whether these effects prove harmful or beneficial, will vary by region, over time, and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to adapt to or cope with the change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concludes that “impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.” The IPCC estimates that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3°C (1.8-5.4°F) above 1990 levels, some places and sectors will see beneficial impacts while others will experience harmful ones. Some low-latitude and polar regions are expected to experience net costs even for small increases in temperature. For increases in temperature greater than 2-3°C (3.6-5.4°F), the IPCC says it is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net costs. “Taken as a whole,” the IPCC concludes, “the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.”
Agriculture and Food Sup
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.htmlply
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded:
Recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively affecting food, fiber and forestry.
Climate Factors
Several factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:
• Average temperature increase
• Change in rainfall amount and patterns
• Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
• Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone
• Change in climatic variability and extreme events
Most agricultural impact studies have considered the effects of one or two aspects of climate change on a particular farming activity. Few, however, have considered the full set of anticipated shifts and their impact on agricultural production across the country.
Average temperature increase: An increase in average temperature can 1) lengthen the growing season in regions with a relatively cool spring and fall; 2) adversely affect crops in regions where summer heat already limits production; 3) increase soil evaporation rates, and 4) increase the chances of severe droughts.
Change in rainfall amount and patterns: Changes in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. The IPCC predicts that precipitation will increase in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions—some by as much as about 20 percent. While regional precipitation will vary the number of extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase (IPCC, 2007).
Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat, rice and soybeans. CO2 can be one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can enhance crop growth. Other limiting factors include water and nutrient availability. While it is expected that CO2 fertilization will have a positive impact on some crops, other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) may temper any beneficial CO2 fertilization effect (IPCC, 2007).
Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of crops. Since ozone levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions and temperature, climate change will most likely increase ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any beneficial yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.
Change in climatic variability and extreme events: Changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty in future climate change. Such changes are anticipated by global climate models, but regional changes and the potential affects on agriculture are more difficult to forecast.
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Implications for North America
The IPCC concluded that, for North America as a whole (IPCC, 2007):
Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of North American rain fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and more spatial variability than in earlier estimates. Most studies project likely climate-related yield increases of 5-20 percent over the first decades of the century, with the overall positive effects of climate persisting through much or all of the 21st century.
• Food production is projected to benefit from a warmer climate, but there probably will be strong regional effects, with some areas in North America suffering significant loss of comparative advantage to other regions.
• The U.S. Great Plains/Canadian Prairies are expected to be particularly vulnerable.
• Crops that are currently near climate thresholds (e.g., wine grapes in California) are likely to suffer decreases in yields, quality, or both.
• Climate change is expected to improve growing conditions for some crops that are limited by length of growing season and temperature. (e.g. fruit production in the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada).
Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S. and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and change.
Ecosystems and Biodiversity
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/eco.htmlrsity
The overwhelming majority of studies of regional climate effects on terrestrial species reveal consistent responses to warming trends, including poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna. Responses of terrestrial species to warming across the Northern Hemisphere are well documented by changes in the timing of growth stages (i.e., phenological changes), especially the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season (IPCC, 2007).
An ecosystem is an interdependent, functioning system of plants, animals and microorganisms. An ecosystem can be as large as the Mojave Desert, or as small as a local pond. Without the support of the other organisms within their own ecosystem, life forms would not survive, much less thrive. Such support requires that predators and prey, fire and water, food and shelter, clean air and open space remain in balance with each other and with the environment around them.
Climate is an integral part of ecosystems and organisms have adapted to their regional climate over time. Climate change is a factor that has the potential to alter ecosystems and the many resources and services they provide to each other and to society. Human societies depend on ecosystems for the natural, cultural, spiritual, recreational and aesthetic resources they provide.
In various regions across the world, some high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems have already been affected by changes in climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reviewed relevant published studies of biological systems and concluded that 20 percent to 30 percent of species assessed may be at risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2-3 °C (3.6-5.4 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2007).
These changes can cause adverse or beneficial effects on species. For example, climate change could benefit certain plant or insect species by increasing their ranges. The resulting impacts on ecosystems and humans, however, could be positive or negative depending on whether these species were invasive (e.g., weeds or mosquitoes) or if they were valuable to humans (e.g., food crops or pollinating insects). The risk of extinction could increase for many species, especially those that are already endangered or at risk due to isolation by geography or human development, low population numbers, or a narrow temperature tolerance range.
Observations of ecosystem impacts are difficult to use in future projections because of the complexities involved in human/nature interactions (e.g., land use change). Nevertheless, the observed changes are compelling examples of how rising temperatures can affect the natural world and raise questions of how vulnerable populations will adapt to direct and indirect effects associated with climate change.
The IPCC (IPCC, 2007) has noted,
During the course of this century the resilience of many ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be exceeded by an unprecedented combination of change in climate and in other global change drivers (especially land use change and overexploitation), if greenhouse gas emissions and other changes continue at or above current rates. By 2100 ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric CO2 levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000 years, and global temperatures at least among the highest as those experienced in the past 740,000 years. This will alter the structure, reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of most ecosystems, and compromise the services they currently provide.
Water Resources
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/water/index.htmlrces
All regions of the world show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. Areas in which runoff is projected to decline are likely to face a reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources. The beneficial impacts of increased annual runoff in other areas are likely to be tempered in some areas by negative effects of increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply, water quality and flood risks (IPCC, 2007)
The future effects of climate change on water resources in the U.S. and other parts of the world will depend on trends in both climatic and non-climatic factors. Evaluating these impacts is challenging because water availability, quality and streamflow are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Other important factors include increased demand for water caused by population growth, changes in the economy, development of new technologies, changes in watershed characteristics and water management decisions.
In addition to the typical impacts on water management, climate change introduces an additional element of uncertainty about future water resource management. Water resources in the United States are heavily managed and supplies are scarce in some regions of the country. Strategies have been developed and continue to evolve to address these issues. Implementation of adaptation measures, such as water conservation, use of markets to allocate water, and the application of appropriate management practices will have an important role to play in determining the impacts of climate change on water resources.
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3) will address the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources (water quantity and quality), and biodiversity. The primary goal of the report, which will be complete by December 2007, is to enhance understanding and ability to estimate impacts of future climate change on these systems.
EPA:
10/09/08
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
Basic Information
The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as volcanic eruptions, changes in the Earth's orbit, and the amount of energy released from the Sun have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution have also changed the composition of the atmosphere and therefore very likely are influencing the Earth's climate.
For over the past 200 years, the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and oil, and deforestation have caused the concentrations of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" to increase significantly in our atmosphere. These gases prevent heat from escaping to space, somewhat like the glass panels of a greenhouse.
Greenhouse gases are necessary to life as we know it, because they keep the planet's surface warmer than it otherwise would be. But, as the concentrations of these gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, the Earth's temperature is climbing above past levels. According to NOAA and NASA data, the Earth's average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2 to 1.4ºF in the last 100 years. The eight warmest years on record (since 1850) have all occurred since 1998, with the warmest year being 2005. Most of the warming in recent decades is very likely the result of human activities. Other aspects of the climate are also changing such as rainfall patterns, snow and ice cover, and sea level.
If greenhouse gases continue to increase, climate models predict that the average temperature at the Earth's surface could increase from 3.2 to 7.2ºF above 1990 levels by the end of this century. Scientists are certain that human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere, and that increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases will change the planet's climate. But they are not sure by how much it will change, at what rate it will change, or what the exact effects will be. See the Science and Health and Environmental Effects sections of this site for more detail, or review the answers to some frequent science questions.
U.S. Climate Policy
The United States government has established a comprehensive policy to address climate change. This policy has three basic components:
• Slowing the growth of emissions
• Strengthening science, technology and institutions
• Enhancing international cooperation
To implement its climate policy, the Federal government is using voluntary and incentive-based programs to reduce emissions and has established programs to promote climate technology and science. This strategy incorporates know-how from many federal agencies and harnesses the power of the private sector.
In February 2002, the United States announced a comprehensive strategy to reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. Greenhouse gas intensity is a measurement of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity. Meeting this commitment will prevent the release of more than 100 million metric tons of carbon-equivalent emissions to the atmosphere (annually) by 2012 and more than 500 million metric tons (cumulatively) between 2002 and 2012.
EPA plays a significant role in helping the Federal government reach the United States' intensity goal. EPA has many current and near-term initiatives that encourage voluntary reductions from a variety of stakeholders. Initiatives, such as ENERGY STAR, Climate Leaders, and our Methane Voluntary Programs, encourage emission reductions from large corporations, consumers, industrial and commercial buildings, and many major industrial sectors. For details on these and other initiatives as well as other aspects of U.S. policy, visit the U.S. Climate Policy section of the site.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
In the U.S., our energy-related activities account for three-quarters of our human-generated greenhouse gas emissions, mostly in the form of carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. More than half the energy-related emissions come from large stationary sources such as power plants, while about a third comes from transportation. Industrial processes (such as the production of cement, steel, and aluminum), agriculture, forestry, other land use, and waste management are also important sources of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States.
For a better understanding of where greenhouse gas emissions come from, governments at the federal, state and local levels prepare emissions inventories, which track emissions from various parts of the economy such as transportation, electricity production, industry, agriculture, forestry, and other sectors. EPA publishes the official national inventory of US greenhouse gas emissions, and the latest greenhouse gas inventory shows that in 2005 the U.S. emitted over 7.2 billon metric tons of greenhouse gases (a million metric tons of CO2 equivalents (MMTCO2e) is roughly equal to the annual GHG emissions of an average U.S. power plant.) Visit the Emissions section of this site to learn more, or review the answers to some frequent emissions questions.
Health and Environmental Effects
Climate change affects people, plants, and animals. Scientists are working to better understand future climate change and how the effects will vary by region and over time.
Scientists have observed that some changes are already occurring. Observed effects include sea level rise, shrinking glaciers, changes in the range and distribution of plants and animals, trees blooming earlier, lengthening of growing seasons, ice on rivers and lakes freezing later and breaking up earlier, and thawing of permafrost. Another key issue being studied is how societies and the Earth's environment will adapt to or cope with climate change.
In the United States, scientists believe that most areas will to continue to warm, although some will likely warm more than others. It remains very difficult to predict which parts of the country will become wetter or drier, but scientists generally expect increased precipitation and evaporation, and drier soil in the middle parts of the country. Northern regions such as Alaska are expected to experience the most warming. In fact, Alaska has been experiencing significant changes in climate in recent years that may be at least partly related to human caused global climate change.
Human health can be affected directly and indirectly by climate change in part through extreme periods of heat and cold, storms, and climate-sensitive diseases such as malaria, and smog episodes. For more information on these and other environmental effects, please visit the Health and Environmental Effects section of this site, or review the answers to some frequent effects questions.
What You Can Do
Greenhouse gases are emitted as a result of the energy we use by driving and using electricity and through other activities that support our quality of life like growing food and raising livestock. Greenhouse gas emissions can be minimized through simple measures like changing light bulbs in your home and properly inflating your tires to improve your car's fuel economy. The What You Can Do section of the climate change site identifies over 25 action steps that individuals can take to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase the nation's energy independence and also save money.
State and local governments and businesses play an important role in meeting the national goal of reducing greenhouse gas intensity by 18 percent by 2012. For example, major corporations, states and local organizations are taking action through participation in a wide range of EPA and other federal voluntary programs.
You can start by assessing your own contribution to the problem, by using EPA's personal greenhouse gas emissions calculator to estimate your household's annual emissions. Once you know about how much you emit, you use the tool to see how simple steps you take at home, at the office, on the road, and at school can reduce your emissions. Visit the What You Can Do section of this site to learn more.
Past Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.htmlRelated Links
CCSP: Product 3.4 - Abrupt Climate Change
NASA: Paleoclimatology Site
NOAA
• Climate Timeline
• Paleoclimatology Program
• Abrupt Climate Change Web site
Causes of Change | Rates of change | The Last 2,000 Years
The Earth's climate has changed throughout history. From glacial periods (or "ice ages") where ice covered significant portions of the Earth to interglacial periods where ice retreated to the poles or melted entirely - the climate has continuously changed.
Scientists have been able to piece together a picture of the Earth's climate dating back decades to millions of years ago by analyzing a number of surrogate, or "proxy," measures of climate such as ice cores, boreholes, tree rings, glacier lengths, pollen remains, and ocean sediments, and by studying changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun.
This page contains information about the causes of climate change throughout the Earth's history, the rates at which the climate has changed, as well as information about climate change during the last 2,000 years.
Causes of Change Prior to the Industrial Era (pre-1780)
Known causes, “drivers” or “forcings” of past climate change include:
• Changes in the Earth's orbit: Changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit (or eccentricity) as well as the Earth's tilt and precession affect the amount of sunlight received on the Earth's surface. These orbital processes -- which function in cycles of 100,000 (eccentricity), 41,000 (tilt), and 19,000 to 23,000 (precession) years -- are thought to be the most significant drivers of ice ages according to the theory of Mulitin Milankovitch, a Serbian mathematician (1879-1958). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observatory offers additional information about orbital variations and the Milankovitch Theory.
• Changes in the sun's intensity: Changes occurring within (or inside) the sun can affect the intensity of the sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface. The intensity of the sunlight can cause either warming (for stronger solar intensity) or cooling (for weaker solar intensity). According to NASA research, reduced solar activity from the 1400s to the 1700s was likely a key factor in the “Little Ice Age” which resulted in a slight cooling of North America, Europe and probably other areas around the globe. (See additional discussion under The Last 2,000 Years.)
• Volcanic eruptions: Volcanoes can affect the climate because they can emit aerosols and carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
o Aerosol emissions: Volcanic aerosols tend to block sunlight and contribute to short term cooling. Aerosols do not produce long-term change because they leave the atmosphere not long after they are emitted. According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the eruption of the Tambora Volcano in Indonesia in 1815 lowered global temperatures by as much as 5ºF and historical accounts in New England describe 1816 as “the year without a summer.”
o Carbon dioxide emissions: Volcanoes also emit carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas, which has a warming effect. For about two-thirds of the last 400 million years, geologic evidence suggests CO2 levels and temperatures were considerably higher than present. One theory is that volcanic eruptions from rapid sea floor spreading elevated CO2 concentrations, enhancing the greenhouse effect and raising temperatures. However, the evidence for this theory is not conclusive and there are alternative explanations for historic CO2 levels (NRC, 2005). While volcanoes may have raised pre-historic CO2 levels and temperatures, according to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program, human activities now emit 130 times as much CO2 as volcanoes (whose emissions are relatively modest compared to some earlier times).
These climate change “drivers” often trigger additional changes or “feedbacks” within the climate system that can amplify or dampen the climate's initial response to them (whether the response is warming or cooling). For example:
• Changes in greenhouse gas concentrations: The heating or cooling of the Earth's surface can cause changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. For example, when global temperatures become warmer, carbon dioxide is released from the oceans. When changes in the Earth's orbit trigger a warm (or interglacial) period, increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide may amplify the warming by enhancing the greenhouse effect. When temperatures become cooler, CO2 enters the ocean and contributes to additional cooling. During at least the last 650,000 years, CO2 levels have tended to track the glacial cycles (IPCC, 2007). That is, during warm interglacial periods, CO2 levels have been high and during cool glacial periods, CO2 levels have been low (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Fluctuations in temperature (red line) and in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (yellow) over the past 649,000 years. The vertical red bar at the end is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels over the past two centuries and before 2007. Click on thumbnail for a full-size image and references.
Changes in ocean currents: The heating or cooling of the Earth's surface can cause changes in ocean currents. Because ocean currents play a significant role in distributing heat around the Earth, changes in these currents can bring about
Rates of Change
Studies of the Earth's previous climate suggest periods of stability as well as periods of rapid change. Recent climate research suggests:
• Interglacial climates (such as the present) tend to be more stable than cooler, glacial climates. For example, the climate during the current and previous interglacials (known as the Holocene and Eemian interglacials) has been more stable than the most recent glacial period (known as the Last Glacial Maximum). This glacial period was characterized by a long string of widespread, large and abrupt climate changes (NRC, 2002).
• Abrupt or rapid climate changes tend to frequently accompany transitions between glacial and interglacial periods (and vice versa). For example, a significant part of the Northern Hemisphere (particularly around Greenland) may have experienced warming ratesof 14-28ºF over several decades during and after the most recent ice age (IPCC, 2007).
While abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the Earth's history, human civilization arose during a period of relative climate stability.
The Last 2,000 Years
During the last 2,000 years, the climate has been relatively stable. Scientists have identified three departures from this stability, known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (also referred to as the Medieval Warm Period), the Little Ice Age and the Industrial Era:
• The Medieval Climate Anomaly: Between roughly 900 and 1300 AD, evidence suggests Europe, Greenland and Asia experienced relative warmth. While historical accounts and other evidence document the warmth that occurred in some regions, the geographical extent, magnitude and timing of the warmth during this period is uncertain (NRC, 2006). The American West experienced very dry conditions around this time.
• The Little Ice Age: A wide variety of evidence supports the global existence of a "Little Ice Age" (this was not a true "ice age" since major ice sheets did not develop) between about 1500 and 1850 (NRC, 2006). Average temperatures were possibly up to 2ºF colder than today, but varied by region.
• The Industrial Era: An additional warm period has emerged in the last 100 years, coinciding with substantially increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities (see Recent Climate Change for more information).
Prior to the Industrial Era, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age had defined the upper and lower boundaries of the climate's recent natural variability and are a reflection of changes in climate drivers (the sun's variability and volcanic activity) and the climate's internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans).
The issue of whether the temperature rise of last 100 years crossed over the warm limit of the boundary defined by the Medieval Climate Anomaly has been a controversial topic in the science community. The National Academy of Sciences recently completed a study to assess the efforts to reconstruct temperatures of the past one to two millennia (see Figure 2) and place the Earth's current warming in historical context (NRC, 2006).
Figure 2: Reconstructions of (Northern Hemisphere average or global average) surface temperature variations from six research teams (in different color shades) along with the instrumental record of global average surface temperature (in black). Each curve illustrates a somewhat different history of temperature changes, with a range of uncertainties that tend to increase backward in time (as indicated by the shading). Reference: NRC, 2006. (Figure reprinted with permission from Surface Temperature Reconstructions© (2006) by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies Press , Washington, D.C.)
According to the study (NRC, 2006):
• There is a high level of confidence that the global average temperature during the last few decades was warmer than any comparable period during the last 400 years.
• Present evidence suggests that temperatures at many, but not all, individual locations were higher during the past 25 years than any period of comparable length since A.D. 900. However, uncertainties associated with this statement increase substantially backward in time.
• Very little confidence can be assigned to estimates of hemisphere average or global average temperature prior to A.D. 900 due to limited data coverage and challenges in analyzing older data.
References
• IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning (eds.)].
• National Research Council (NRC), 2002: Abrupt Climate Change, Inevitable Surprises. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
• National Research Council (NRC), 2005: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. National Academy Press, Washington, DC. National Academy Press, Washington, DC
• National Research Council (NRC), 2006. Surface Temperature Reconstructions For the Last 2,000 Years. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Recent Climate Change
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentcc.html
Since the Industrial Revolution (around 1750), human activities have substantially added to the amount of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels and biomass (living matter such as vegetation) has also resulted in emissions of aerosols that absorb and emit heat, and reflect light.
The addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. The changes in the atmosphere have likely influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging.
The following pages provide a summary of the atmosphere and climate changes observed during the Industrial Era and, where possible, current understanding of why the changes have occurred:
• Atmosphere Changes
• Temperature Changes
• Precipitation and Storm Changes
• Sea Level Changes
Land Cover and Land Use Change
In addition to changes in the atmosphere’s composition, changes in the land surface can have important effects on climate. For example, a change in land use and cover can affect temperature by changing how much solar radiation the land reflects and absorbs. Processes such as deforestation, reforestation, desertification and urbanization often contribute to changes in climate (including temperature, wind and precipitation) in the places they occur. These effects may be significant regionally, but reduced when averaged over the entire globe.
Changes in land cover and land use can also affect the amount of carbon dioxide taken up (or sequestered) or released by the land surface. For more information, visit EPA’s Carbon Sequestration in Agriculture and Forestry Site.
The content of this Web site focuses on global changes in climate from changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. For more information on the state of knowledge of land-use change on climate, see the Climate Change Science Program's Strategic Plan's Chapter on Land Use/Land Cover Change.
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/futurecc.html
Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will increase during the next century unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease substantially from present levels. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations are very likely to raise the Earth's average temperature, influence precipitation and some storm patterns as well as raise sea levels (IPCC, 2007). The magnitude of these changes, however, is uncertain.
The amount and speed of future climate change will ultimately depend on:
• Whether greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations increase, stay the same or decrease.
• How strongly features of the climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation and sea level) respond to changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations.
• How much the climate varies as a result of natural influences (e.g. from volcanic activity and changes in the sun ’s intensity) and its internal variability (referring to random changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans).
Climate Models
Virtually all published estimates of how the climate could change in the future are produced by computer models of the Earth’s climate system. These models are known as general circulation models (GCMs). According to the IPCC (2007):
“[C]onfidence in models comes from their physical basis, and their skill in representing observed climate and past climate changes. Models have proven to be extremely important tools for simulating and understanding climate, and there is considerable confidence that they are able to provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at larger scales. Models continue to have significant limitations, such as in their representation of clouds, which lead to uncertainties in the magnitude and timing, as well as regional details, of predicted climate change. Nevertheless, over several decades of model development, they have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.”
It is important to recognize that projections of climate change in specific areas are not forecasts comparable to tomorrow’s weather forecast. Rather, they are hypothetical examples of how the climate might change and usually contain a range of possibilities as opposed to one specific high likelihood outcome.
The following pages provide a summary of the projected changes in the atmosphere and climate over the next century based on the current state of knowledge:
• Future Atmosphere Changes in Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Concentrations
• Future Temperature Changes
• Future Precipitation and Storm Changes
• Future Sea Level Changes
As with any field of scientific study, there are uncertainties associated with the science of climate change. This does not imply that scientists do not have confidence in many aspects of climate science. Some aspects of the science are known with virtual certainty1, because they are based on well-known physical laws and documented trends. Current understanding of many other aspects of climate change ranges from “very likely” to “uncertain.”
What's Known
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/stateofknowledge.html
Scientists know with virtual certainty that:
• Human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times are well-documented and understood.
• The atmospheric buildup of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels.
• An “unequivocal” warming trend of about 1.0 to 1.7°F occurred from 1906-2005. Warming occurred in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and over the oceans (IPCC, 2007).
• The major greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries. It is therefore virtually certain that atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will continue to rise over the next few decades.
• Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations tend to warm the planet.
What's Very Likely?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" (IPCC, 2007). In short, a growing number of scientific analyses indicate, but cannot prove, that rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are contributing to climate change (as theory predicts). In the coming decades, scientists anticipate that as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise, average global temperatures and sea levels will continue to rise as a result and precipitation patterns will change.
What's Not Certain?
Important scientific questions remain about how much warming will occur, how fast it will occur, and how the warming will affect the rest of the climate system including precipitation patterns and storms. Answering these questions will require advances in scientific knowledge in a number of areas:
• Improving understanding of natural climatic variations, changes in the sun's energy, land-use changes, the warming or cooling effects of pollutant aerosols, and the impacts of changing humidity and cloud cover.
• Determining the relative contribution to climate change of human activities and natural causes.
• Projecting future greenhouse emissions and how the climate system will respond within a narrow range.
• Improving understanding of the potential for rapid or abrupt climate change.
Addressing these and other areas of scientific uncertainty is a major priority of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). The CCSP is developing twenty-one Synthesis and Assessment products to advance scientific understanding of these uncertainty areas by the end of 2008. More information
Greenhouse Gas Overview
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/index.htmlverview
Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere are often called greenhouse gases. This section of the EPA Climate Change Site provides information and data on emissions of greenhouse gases to Earth’s atmosphere, and also the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. For more information on the science of climate change, please visit EPA's climate change science home page.
Some greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide occur naturally and are emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes and human activities. Other greenhouse gases (e.g., fluorinated gases) are created and emitted solely through human activities. The principal greenhouse gases that enter the atmosphere because of human activities are:
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2): Carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid waste, trees and wood products, and also as a result of other chemical reactions (e.g., manufacture of cement). Carbon dioxide is also removed from the atmosphere (or “sequestered”) when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle.
• Methane (CH4): Methane is emitted during the production and transport of coal, natural gas, and oil. Methane emissions also result from livestock and other agricultural practices and by the decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills.
• Nitrous Oxide (N2O): Nitrous oxide is emitted during agricultural and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste.
• Fluorinated Gases: Hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride are synthetic, powerful greenhouse gases that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Fluorinated gases are sometimes used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (i.e., CFCs, HCFCs, and halons). These gases are typically emitted in smaller quantities, but because they are potent greenhouse gases, they are sometimes referred to as High Global Warming Potential gases (“High GWP gases”).
National Goal to Reduce Emissions
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/policy/intensitygoal.html Intensity
The United States is committed to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the American economy by 18 percent over the 10-year period from 2002 to 2012. This initiative puts America on a path to slow the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, and -- as the science supports -- to stop, and then reverse that growth.
What is our Greenhouse Gas Intensity?
Greenhouse gas intensity is the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to economic output. The U.S. goal is to lower emissions from an estimated 183 metric tons per million dollars of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2002, to 151 metric tons per million dollars of GDP in 2012. The U.S. commitment will achieve 100 million metric tons of reduced emissions in 2012 alone, with more than 500 million metric tons in cumulative savings over the entire decade. The policy focuses on reducing emissions through technology improvements and dissemination, improving the efficiency of energy use, voluntary programs with industry and shifts to cleaner fuels.
The intensity-based approach promotes near-term opportunities (e.g. voluntary programs and partnerships) to conserve fossil fuel, recover methane and sequester carbon. These programs encourage the adoption of existing technologies, energy efficiency improvements and renewable resources to reduce emissions cost-effectively. In the longer term, development and deployment of breakthrough technologies will provide safe and reliable energy to fuel our economy with reduced or no greenhouse gas emissions.
Health and Environmental http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/index.htmlEffects
Many elements of human society and the environment are sensitive to climate variability and change. Human health, agriculture, natural ecosystems, coastal areas, and heating and cooling requirements are examples of climate-sensitive systems.
Rising average temperatures are already affecting the environment. Some observed changes include shrinking of glaciers, thawing of permafrost, later freezing and earlier break-up of ice on rivers and lakes, lengthening of growing seasons, shifts in plant and animal ranges and earlier flowering of trees (IPCC, 2007).
Global temperatures are expected to continue to rise as human activities continue to add carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse (or heat-trapping) gases to the atmosphere. Most of the United States is expected to experience an increase in average temperature (IPCC, 2007). Precipitation changes, which are also very important to consider when assessing climate change effects, are more difficult to predict. Whether or not rainfall will increase or decrease remains difficult to project for specific regions.
The extent of climate change effects, and whether these effects prove harmful or beneficial, will vary by region, over time, and with the ability of different societal and environmental systems to adapt to or cope with the change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concludes that “impacts of climate change will vary regionally but, aggregated and discounted to the present, they are very likely to impose net annual costs which will increase over time as global temperatures increase.” The IPCC estimates that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3°C (1.8-5.4°F) above 1990 levels, some places and sectors will see beneficial impacts while others will experience harmful ones. Some low-latitude and polar regions are expected to experience net costs even for small increases in temperature. For increases in temperature greater than 2-3°C (3.6-5.4°F), the IPCC says it is very likely that all regions will experience either declines in net benefits or increases in net costs. “Taken as a whole,” the IPCC concludes, “the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.”
Agriculture and Food Sup
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/agriculture.htmlply
Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. The forces that shape our climate are also critical to farm productivity. Human activity has already changed atmospheric characteristics such as temperature, rainfall, levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and ground level ozone. The scientific community expects such trends to continue. While food production may benefit from a warmer climate, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Additionally, the enduring changes in climate, water supply and soil moisture could make it less feasible to continue crop production in certain regions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded:
Recent studies indicate that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods negatively affect crop yields and livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change, creating the possibility for surprises, with impacts that are larger, and occurring earlier, than predicted using changes in mean variables alone. This is especially the case for subsistence sectors at low latitudes. Climate variability and change also modify the risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak, negatively affecting food, fiber and forestry.
Climate Factors
Several factors directly connect climate change and agricultural productivity:
• Average temperature increase
• Change in rainfall amount and patterns
• Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2
• Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone
• Change in climatic variability and extreme events
Most agricultural impact studies have considered the effects of one or two aspects of climate change on a particular farming activity. Few, however, have considered the full set of anticipated shifts and their impact on agricultural production across the country.
Average temperature increase: An increase in average temperature can 1) lengthen the growing season in regions with a relatively cool spring and fall; 2) adversely affect crops in regions where summer heat already limits production; 3) increase soil evaporation rates, and 4) increase the chances of severe droughts.
Change in rainfall amount and patterns: Changes in rainfall can affect soil erosion rates and soil moisture, both of which are important for crop yields. The IPCC predicts that precipitation will increase in high latitudes, and decrease in most subtropical land regions—some by as much as about 20 percent. While regional precipitation will vary the number of extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase (IPCC, 2007).
Rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2: Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, driven by emissions from human activities, can act as a fertilizer and enhance the growth of some crops such as wheat, rice and soybeans. CO2 can be one of a number of limiting factors that, when increased, can enhance crop growth. Other limiting factors include water and nutrient availability. While it is expected that CO2 fertilization will have a positive impact on some crops, other aspects of climate change (e.g., temperature and precipitation changes) may temper any beneficial CO2 fertilization effect (IPCC, 2007).
Pollution levels such as tropospheric ozone: Higher levels of ground level ozone limit the growth of crops. Since ozone levels in the lower atmosphere are shaped by both emissions and temperature, climate change will most likely increase ozone concentrations. Such changes may offset any beneficial yield effects that result from elevated CO2 levels.
Change in climatic variability and extreme events: Changes in the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought, floods and hurricanes, remain a key uncertainty in future climate change. Such changes are anticipated by global climate models, but regional changes and the potential affects on agriculture are more difficult to forecast.
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Implications for North America
The IPCC concluded that, for North America as a whole (IPCC, 2007):
Moderate climate change will likely increase yields of North American rain fed agriculture, but with smaller increases and more spatial variability than in earlier estimates. Most studies project likely climate-related yield increases of 5-20 percent over the first decades of the century, with the overall positive effects of climate persisting through much or all of the 21st century.
• Food production is projected to benefit from a warmer climate, but there probably will be strong regional effects, with some areas in North America suffering significant loss of comparative advantage to other regions.
• The U.S. Great Plains/Canadian Prairies are expected to be particularly vulnerable.
• Crops that are currently near climate thresholds (e.g., wine grapes in California) are likely to suffer decreases in yields, quality, or both.
• Climate change is expected to improve growing conditions for some crops that are limited by length of growing season and temperature. (e.g. fruit production in the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada).
Agriculture in the U.S. and other industrialized countries is expected to be less vulnerable to climate change than agriculture in developing nations, especially in the tropics, where farmers may have a limited ability to adapt. In addition, the effects of climate change on U.S. and world agriculture will depend not only on changing climate conditions, but will also depend on the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt through future changes in technology, changes in demand for food, and environmental conditions, such as water availability and soil quality. Management practices, the opportunity to switch management and crop selection from season to season, and technology can help the agricultural sector cope with and adapt to climatic variability and change.
Ecosystems and Biodiversity
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/eco.htmlrsity
The overwhelming majority of studies of regional climate effects on terrestrial species reveal consistent responses to warming trends, including poleward and elevational range shifts of flora and fauna. Responses of terrestrial species to warming across the Northern Hemisphere are well documented by changes in the timing of growth stages (i.e., phenological changes), especially the earlier onset of spring events, migration, and lengthening of the growing season (IPCC, 2007).
An ecosystem is an interdependent, functioning system of plants, animals and microorganisms. An ecosystem can be as large as the Mojave Desert, or as small as a local pond. Without the support of the other organisms within their own ecosystem, life forms would not survive, much less thrive. Such support requires that predators and prey, fire and water, food and shelter, clean air and open space remain in balance with each other and with the environment around them.
Climate is an integral part of ecosystems and organisms have adapted to their regional climate over time. Climate change is a factor that has the potential to alter ecosystems and the many resources and services they provide to each other and to society. Human societies depend on ecosystems for the natural, cultural, spiritual, recreational and aesthetic resources they provide.
In various regions across the world, some high-altitude and high-latitude ecosystems have already been affected by changes in climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reviewed relevant published studies of biological systems and concluded that 20 percent to 30 percent of species assessed may be at risk of extinction from climate change impacts within this century if global mean temperatures exceed 2-3 °C (3.6-5.4 °F) relative to pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2007).
These changes can cause adverse or beneficial effects on species. For example, climate change could benefit certain plant or insect species by increasing their ranges. The resulting impacts on ecosystems and humans, however, could be positive or negative depending on whether these species were invasive (e.g., weeds or mosquitoes) or if they were valuable to humans (e.g., food crops or pollinating insects). The risk of extinction could increase for many species, especially those that are already endangered or at risk due to isolation by geography or human development, low population numbers, or a narrow temperature tolerance range.
Observations of ecosystem impacts are difficult to use in future projections because of the complexities involved in human/nature interactions (e.g., land use change). Nevertheless, the observed changes are compelling examples of how rising temperatures can affect the natural world and raise questions of how vulnerable populations will adapt to direct and indirect effects associated with climate change.
The IPCC (IPCC, 2007) has noted,
During the course of this century the resilience of many ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be exceeded by an unprecedented combination of change in climate and in other global change drivers (especially land use change and overexploitation), if greenhouse gas emissions and other changes continue at or above current rates. By 2100 ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric CO2 levels substantially higher than in the past 650,000 years, and global temperatures at least among the highest as those experienced in the past 740,000 years. This will alter the structure, reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of most ecosystems, and compromise the services they currently provide.
Water Resources
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/water/index.htmlrces
All regions of the world show an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. Areas in which runoff is projected to decline are likely to face a reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources. The beneficial impacts of increased annual runoff in other areas are likely to be tempered in some areas by negative effects of increased precipitation variability and seasonal runoff shifts on water supply, water quality and flood risks (IPCC, 2007)
The future effects of climate change on water resources in the U.S. and other parts of the world will depend on trends in both climatic and non-climatic factors. Evaluating these impacts is challenging because water availability, quality and streamflow are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. Other important factors include increased demand for water caused by population growth, changes in the economy, development of new technologies, changes in watershed characteristics and water management decisions.
In addition to the typical impacts on water management, climate change introduces an additional element of uncertainty about future water resource management. Water resources in the United States are heavily managed and supplies are scarce in some regions of the country. Strategies have been developed and continue to evolve to address these issues. Implementation of adaptation measures, such as water conservation, use of markets to allocate water, and the application of appropriate management practices will have an important role to play in determining the impacts of climate change on water resources.
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 (SAP 4.3) will address the effects of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources (water quantity and quality), and biodiversity. The primary goal of the report, which will be complete by December 2007, is to enhance understanding and ability to estimate impacts of future climate change on these systems.
Global Warming Lab/Green book activity
In class we conducted an experiment to compare the absorption of heat on various surfaces on the Earth. I learned alot from this particuliar experiment. The darker the substance tends to be, such as soil, the more heat it will absorb. THis is most likely because of the fact that black takes in alot more heat then lighter colors. Sand would be considered a lighter substance. Although sand absorbs heat at a high right, its lighter color tends to cause the absorbency levels to be lower, than that of darker substances. All substances on earth absorb solar energy as heat. Some substances though, absorb heat while radiating it back.
Water is an example of one of those substances. Water, tends to heat up much slower than soil or sand, because it is transparent and because the surface of water tends to radiate heat back twoards the sun. Water alsmost acts like a mirror. When the heat from the sun hits the surface, some of the heat gets reflected back into the atmosphere.
I also learned alot about the rates of cooling on Earth. After the sun goes down, certain substances contain their heat, while others lose it. Water is a substance that tends to loose its heat, while the ground contains it. This could best be observed on a foggy night, when you see the water evaporating out of the ground. When this occurs, the ground is loosing heat enrgy in the form of evaporating water.
Doing this lab has helped me depict the role of different substances on the earth and heat containment.
I hope to continue doing labs like this, to make real life observations and connections, to further my education and understanding of the natural sciences.
Water is an example of one of those substances. Water, tends to heat up much slower than soil or sand, because it is transparent and because the surface of water tends to radiate heat back twoards the sun. Water alsmost acts like a mirror. When the heat from the sun hits the surface, some of the heat gets reflected back into the atmosphere.
I also learned alot about the rates of cooling on Earth. After the sun goes down, certain substances contain their heat, while others lose it. Water is a substance that tends to loose its heat, while the ground contains it. This could best be observed on a foggy night, when you see the water evaporating out of the ground. When this occurs, the ground is loosing heat enrgy in the form of evaporating water.
Doing this lab has helped me depict the role of different substances on the earth and heat containment.
I hope to continue doing labs like this, to make real life observations and connections, to further my education and understanding of the natural sciences.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
WES Activity A
WES activity A helped me learn about the different flows of water in our biosphere in differnt climates. Water is a very important aspect in our ecosystem, without it, humans, animals, and plants couldn't and wouldn't survive. Water flow in the Earth occurs due to the distribution of energy in on our Earth. In differnet hemispheres and in different climates, water is harvested, used and produced in many different ways.
Places that tend to be more dry have to grow their agriculture in the places that have the most water. Human civilization is dependent on agriculture for food, maintaining livestock and trade. Without water or strategic places for cultivating crop, humans would not and couldn not survive.
Things such as gravity, elevation, and geography affects the natural distrubiton of water in our biosphere. Without the force of gravity, or without elevated areas to accumulate condensing water, precipitation and water flow into lower regions in the world would not be possible.
It is truly amazing to study the symbiotic relationships that exist in our biosphere. If even the slightest climate change or greographical change occured, our entire water system and flow of nutrients could change. If a change was to occur in these important chemical cylces, many things would cohesively change, and cause detrimental changes in our significant biosphere.
Places that tend to be more dry have to grow their agriculture in the places that have the most water. Human civilization is dependent on agriculture for food, maintaining livestock and trade. Without water or strategic places for cultivating crop, humans would not and couldn not survive.
Things such as gravity, elevation, and geography affects the natural distrubiton of water in our biosphere. Without the force of gravity, or without elevated areas to accumulate condensing water, precipitation and water flow into lower regions in the world would not be possible.
It is truly amazing to study the symbiotic relationships that exist in our biosphere. If even the slightest climate change or greographical change occured, our entire water system and flow of nutrients could change. If a change was to occur in these important chemical cylces, many things would cohesively change, and cause detrimental changes in our significant biosphere.
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